|Training Program - Time Predictions
As the date for the Cincinnati Flying Pig Marathon continues to inch closer, a legitimate concern, especially among first timers is, "What can I reasonably expect to run 26.2 miles in?" I would like to give you some guidelines.
As a basis for these forecasts I am using the book Oxygen Power - Performance Tables For Distance Runners. Jack Daniels and Jimmy Gilbert co-produced it. It compares performances from a variety of distances and assigns a number that serves as a common denominator for evaluating the different length races. I use these tables when I rank the local runners in each issue of The Runner's Spotlite and I have found them to be very consistent and accurate.
These comparisons involve a few assumptions. A major one is that you are similarly and adequately prepared for each distance being contested. This means that you have been doing proper training for a 5k, 10k, 15k or for a marathon. The charts primarily take into account heart and lung capacity. During a marathon you may slow up because of a cramp, dehydration, or other malady that is not necessarily related to cardiovascular fitness. For that reason I would suggest that to go faster than the projected marathon time is unlikely and a 2:00-5:00 slower time is very possible.
Another assumption is that the conditions when you ran the race were similar. Comparing performances run during very hot, humid conditions with those run while it were cool with low humidity is difficult. Flat versus hilly courses also gives diverse results.
Click here to see the Marathom Time Projection Table.
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